Market Analysis
Markets Look Past Geopolitics as Focus Shifts to U.S. Jobs Data
Jun 4, 2026
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Investors Await Friday’s NFP Report
Markets are increasingly focused on Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, which could provide the next major catalyst for risk assets.
Goldman Sachs expectations:
- Payrolls: +60k vs +89k consensus
- Unemployment Rate: 4.3% (unchanged)
- Average Hourly Earnings: +0.4% m/m
A softer-than-expected labor report could reinforce expectations for future Fed easing, while a stronger print may push Treasury yields higher and challenge current equity valuations.
Geopolitical Risks Fail to Derail Risk Appetite
Despite renewed military exchanges between the U.S. and Iran and continued uncertainty surrounding the fragile ceasefire, financial markets have remained remarkably resilient.
Key developments:
- U.S. and Iranian forces exchanged strikes.
- Middle East tensions remain elevated.
- WTI crude oil continues to trade above $93 per barrel.
Yet, risk sentiment has remained largely intact as investors continue to prioritize growth and liquidity expectations over geopolitical concerns.
Technical Outlook: Gold Remains Near Key Support
From a technical perspective, gold continues to trade near the lower boundary of its multi-week descending channel, with prices holding just above a major support zone around 4,400. The broader structure remains corrective, and a decisive break below support could open the door to further downside.
At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is testing resistance near 99.50, creating an additional headwind for bullion. As a result, Friday's U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report could prove pivotal for both gold and the dollar, potentially determining whether gold can stabilize and rebound or extend its recent weakness.
Nasdaq 100 Continues Higher on FOMO
The Nasdaq 100 remains one of the strongest-performing global assets despite growing concerns over stretched valuations.
Several factors continue to support the rally:
- Strong AI-related enthusiasm.
- Persistent momentum buying.
- Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) among investors.
- Limited willingness to bet against the prevailing trend.
While gains have begun to slow compared to previous weeks, buyers continue to step in on dips, keeping the broader uptrend intact.
Key Levels to Watch
Nasdaq 100
- Resistance: 30,705
- Support: 30,670
- Bullish Target: 30,870
- Bearish Target: 29,580
Gold (XAU/USD)
- Trading near major support around 4,400.
- Dollar strength remains a key headwind.
- Friday's NFP report could determine whether support holds or breaks.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
- Testing resistance near 99.50.
- A stronger labor report could trigger a breakout higher and pressure precious metals.
Bottom Line
Markets enter the end of the week balancing three major themes:
- Softening U.S. labor market expectations
- Persistent Middle East geopolitical risks
- Continued AI-driven equity momentum
For now, investors appear more concerned about missing the rally than geopolitical uncertainty, leaving Friday's jobs report as the next major test for equities, bonds, the dollar, and gold.
